Break down the heir's opening risks
List plausible costs in the opening months: troops, gifts to key vassals, ransom, travel or another response supported by the actual campaign. Not every item must happen; the model tests the chosen adverse case.
Separate the core reserve from one transition shock. That reveals which layer breaks the plan and whether a parallel commitment can be removed.
Use a working horizon, not an exact date
Succession timing is uncertain. Choose a period across which resilience matters and rerun for an earlier transfer. The difference exposes sensitivity to current spending.
A short horizon is not a death prediction. It is an adverse case that reveals whether the final building or war leaves the heir too little room.
Do not overstate monthly flow
Enter income after raised troops, court upkeep and existing commitments. The best peaceful month does not fit a plan that includes war or another activity before succession.
If a holding can move to another line, its future income should not fully finance the primary heir's reserve. Run a second case without the exposed flow.
Preserve options for the heir
For a small shortfall, delay the last optional activity or building. For a large gap, reduce a parallel war, rebuild the buffer from named risks and test an earlier transition.
Save the scenario and update it when health, factions or holdings change. Future Silk & Silver mechanics remain outside the live model until release and verification; the current runway stays bound to version 1.19.0.6.
Replace the baseline with your inputs and get an answer for your scenario.
Data note. Every numeric example is a transparent baseline scenario. It is not presented as official publisher data and can be recalculated in the linked tool.