Field Notes · decisions, not news

Take a game economy all the way to an action.

Every note answers one player question, shows the calculation and ends with a model you can rerun for your own case.

Flagship analysis

01-35

35 notes · 5 live economies + GTA VI · RU/EN
GTA VI01
GTA VI · Evidence review

What is actually confirmed about the GTA VI economy

Separate official facts, narrative economic signals and mechanics Rockstar has not confirmed.

8 min · 2026-08-20
verified · GTA VI · pre-release dossier · Aug 20, 2026
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GTA VI02
GTA VI · bounded precedent

What GTA Online can teach us about GTA VI without predictions

Keep the useful ways of measuring money, time and risk without presenting one game's mechanics as facts about another.

7 min · 2026-08-20
verified · GTA VI · pre-release dossier · Aug 20, 2026
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GTA VI03
GTA VI · launch methodology

How to measure the GTA VI economy honestly in the first 72 hours

A protocol from the first currency observation to repeatable payouts, major purchases and recommendations with visible confidence.

8 min · 2026-08-20
verified · GTA VI · pre-release protocol · Aug 20, 2026
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GTA Online04
GTA Online · Field guide

Returning to GTA Online: a 30-minute economy audit

A practical sequence for bank, assets, the current event and the first major spending decision after a break.

9 min · 2026-08-18
estimated · GTA Online · Brand Wars · checked August 18, 2026
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Dota 205
Dota 2 · Patch 7.41e field guide

The first 20 minutes as a decision ledger: a Patch 7.41e guide

Read lane income, acceleration, usable item timing, the next objective and liquidity as one match system.

10 min · 2026-08-18
estimated · Dota 2 · Patch 7.41e
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WoW Retail06
WoW Retail · Market field guide

A Curse of Ula’tek market plan: from discovery batch to turnover

Return to the WoW market, validate demand with limited volume and avoid freezing all gold in attractive modeled margin.

10 min · 2026-08-18
estimated · WoW Retail · Midnight: Curse of Ula’tek
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Total War: Warhammer III07
Total War: Warhammer III · Campaign guide

Frontier reserve in Patch 8.1: a long-campaign Total War guide

Connect province income, building payback, the next army and second-front risk in one campaign plan.

10 min · 2026-08-18
estimated · Total War: Warhammer III · Patch 8.1
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Crusader Kings III08
Crusader Kings III · Dynasty guide

Treasury before and after succession: a Crusader Kings III 1.19 guide

Use the Ledger, compare a building with liquidity and transfer optionality to the heir instead of only a title.

10 min · 2026-08-18
estimated · Crusader Kings III · Update 1.19.0.6
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Total War: Warhammer III09
Total War: Warhammer III · Province development

Will the building pay back before the next war? A campaign-horizon guide

Compare marginal income, construction delay, frontier risk and lost tempo before pressing the build button.

9 min · 2026-08-18
estimated · Total War: Warhammer III · Patch 8.1
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Total War: Warhammer III010
Total War: Warhammer III · Post-conquest decision

Sack or hold: pricing a conquest on an unstable frontier

Compare immediate loot and future flow across one horizon with recovery delay and province-loss risk.

8 min · 2026-08-18
estimated · Total War: Warhammer III · Patch 8.1
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Crusader Kings III011
Crusader Kings III · Domain decision

Should you build before succession? Domain payback in version 1.19

Test the next building through marginal income, construction time, partition risk and the treasury left to the heir.

9 min · 2026-08-18
estimated · Crusader Kings III · version 1.19.0.6
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Crusader Kings III012
Crusader Kings III · War finance

The war chest before declaring war: run the bad case

Combine current flow, wartime burn, one-off costs, duration and a required reserve before pressing the war button.

8 min · 2026-08-18
estimated · Crusader Kings III · version 1.19.0.6
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GTA Online013
GTA Online · Capital planning

GTA Online purchase runway: target, date and reserve in one model

Calculate a real large-purchase horizon without mixing headline sales, weekly net flow and cash that must remain untouched.

8 min · 2026-08-19
estimated · GTA Online · Brand Wars · checked August 18, 2026
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Dota 2014
Dota 2 · Match economy

Dota 2 item timing without silently spending the buffer

A step-by-step model for remaining item cost, current GPM, the match checkpoint and gold that must survive the purchase.

8 min · 2026-08-19
estimated · Dota 2 · Patch 7.41e
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WoW Retail015
WoW Retail · Market liquidity

WoW gold goal: a liquidity runway, not storefront GPH

Turn goal cost, available hours and the realized cash cycle into a plan that does not count unsold inventory as finished gold.

8 min · 2026-08-19
estimated · WoW Retail · Midnight: Curse of Ula’tek
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Total War: Warhammer III016
Total War: Warhammer III · War runway

Total War war-chest countdown: pricing preparation by turn

Plan recruitment, expected deficit and a second-front reserve across one horizon before declaring war.

8 min · 2026-08-19
estimated · Total War: Warhammer III · Patch 8.1
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Crusader Kings III017
Crusader Kings III · Succession

CK3 succession buffer: how many months does the treasury need?

Plan a liquid opening for the next ruler through a working horizon, net income and one separate transition shock.

8 min · 2026-08-19
estimated · Crusader Kings III · version 1.19.0.6
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GTA Online018
GTA Online · Capital allocation

What to buy in GTA Online with GTA$2.5m after a long break

Find the next best solo-returner business through payback, net profit and operating friction.

6 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · GTA Online · July 2026 estimate set
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GTA Online019
GTA Online · Asset comparison

Acid Lab or Bunker: which is the stronger solo purchase

Compare two production assets by entry cost, net flow, payback and solo friction.

5 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · GTA Online · July 2026 estimate set
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GTA Online020
GTA Online · Unit economics

Why the largest sale number is not the best business

Separate headline payout from net profit, production throughput and capital payback.

5 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · GTA Online · July 2026 estimate set
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GTA Online021
GTA Online · Limited-time route

The best GTA Online business with only four hours a week

Build a calm solo scenario with a friction ceiling instead of maximizing theoretical income.

5 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · GTA Online · July 2026 estimate set
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GTA Online022
GTA Online · Portfolio role

Nightclub: standalone cash flow or portfolio asset?

Why low friction does not automatically make Nightclub the best first purchase, and how to frame infrastructure synergy.

6 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · GTA Online · July 2026 estimate set
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GTA Online023
GTA Online · Weekly opportunity cost

When a weekly bonus should change your GTA Online plan

Separate a free asset, a temporary multiplier and a short cash window from long-horizon business economics.

5 min · 2026-08-18
verified · GTA Online · Brand Wars · Aug 13-26 2026
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Dota 2024
Dota 2 · Timing economics

When Hand of Midas actually pays back - and why 160 gold is misleading

Calculate Midas incremental value, break-even minute and realized ROI through the expected match end.

5 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · Dota 2 · Patch 7.41e baseline
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Dota 2025
Dota 2 · Liquidity reserve

How much gold to actually hold for buyback before Roshan

Correct the old formula, calculate the reserve gap and separate the value of a second life from a blanket ban on spending.

6 min · 2026-08-12
verified · Dota 2 · Patch 7.41e · buyback formula verified
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Dota 2026
Dota 2 · Non-cash utility

How to value Madstone and +40 attack speed without faking Midas ROI

Separate guaranteed Transmute gold from patch-specific non-cash value and run a sensitivity case.

5 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · Dota 2 · Patch 7.41e baseline
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Dota 2027
Dota 2 · Timing quality

Why strong GPM proves nothing without item timing

Connect income to purchase minute, the nearest objective and the realized conversion of the lead.

5 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · Dota 2 · Patch 7.41e framework
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Dota 2028
Dota 2 · Closing liquidity

Component or buyback one minute before high ground

Analyze the late-game fork through reserve gap, re-entry and whether the purchase creates a new way to win the fight.

6 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · Dota 2 · Patch 7.41e scenario model
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Dota 2029
Dota 2 · Replay review

Four timestamps that turn a replay into an economy review

Purchase, objective, death and buyback reveal the decision that changed the trajectory instead of hunting one bad minute.

5 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · Dota 2 · Patch 7.41e replay framework
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WoW Retail030
WoW Retail · Market liquidity

Why 3,420 gold/hour in WoW may be only 1,957 of real gold

Understand the liquidity haircut from sell-through, Auction House cut, expenses and unsold inventory.

6 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · WoW Retail · Midnight baseline
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WoW Retail031
WoW Retail · Recipe economics

How to calculate real crafting margin after the Auction House and liquidity

Move from an attractive spread to expected profit after the AH cut, sell-through, deposit and batch size.

6 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · WoW Retail · Curse of Ula’tek market model
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WoW Retail032
WoW Retail · Knowledge allocation

Profession Knowledge reset: choose the market before clicking

Turn a one-time reset from an impulsive respec into a market-specialization decision.

6 min · 2026-08-12
verified · WoW Retail · Curse of Ula’tek
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WoW Retail033
WoW Retail · Service economics

Crafting Order commission: what your work needs to earn

Build a minimum commission from crafter materials, recraft reserve and the opportunity cost of time.

5 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · WoW Retail · Crafting Orders model
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WoW Retail034
WoW Retail · Working capital

Batch size: how a profitable craft becomes an inventory trap

Why positive unit margin does not prove that the market can absorb twenty, fifty or one hundred crafts.

5 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · WoW Retail · Curse of Ula’tek market model
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WoW Retail035
WoW Retail · Limited-time route

Gathering or crafting with only a few hours a week

Compare two market routes across capital, liquidity, time fit, specialization moat and operating friction.

6 min · 2026-08-12
estimated · WoW Retail · Curse of Ula’tek market model
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